DOI: 10.31038/PSYJ.2025774

Abstract

This study examined how core self-evaluation influences the relationship between family functioning and patients with drug abuse. A sample of 88 patients were used with age range of 18-65 with mean age of 33.83 and standard deviation of 9.728. 40 patients were selected from Federal Neuropsychiatric Hospital New Haven and 48 participants were selected from Nigeria Correctional service in Enugu. Simple random sampling technique (balloting) was used in selecting hospitals and purposive sampling technique (Inclusion and Exclusion criteria) was adopted in the selection of participants. Inclusion Criteria (the participants were inpatient and they are drug abuse patients and exclusion (those who have never used substance) Three instruments were used to obtain information and these include; (1) core self-evaluation scale, (2) The brief relationship scale, (3) drug abuse screening test. Correlational research design and moderated hierarchical regression analysis was adopted as a statistical tool. Family functioning did not relate with drug abuse (β=-.261, t=10.445, P=.072). Core self-evaluation negatively correlated with drug abuse (β=-.697, t=-9.117, P>.01). finally core self-evaluation did not moderate family functioning and drug abuse (β=.226, t=1.579, P=.118). One implication of this study is that clinical psychologist (psychotherapist) should always pay attention to the drug abuse patients core self-evaluation, teach them the importance of handling task and challenges well. (self-efficacy), how to stabilize their emotions and also learn to value themselves (self-esteem) [1-3].

Keywords

Core self-evaluation, Family functioning, Drug abuse

Introduction

Background to the Study

Drug abuse is a growing public health concern, with far-reaching implications for both individual and their families. The transition to adulthood is a serious period marked by significant psychological and social changes, during which the risk for developing drug abuse can increase. Family functioning, which includes the quality of relationships, communication, and overall emotional support within the family unit, has been exposed to significantly impact the likelihood of drug abuse among patients.

World Drug Report in 2021 revealed that approximately 275 million individuals worldwide had used drugs within the past year, with 36 million people going through drug abuse. In Nigeria, the same report estimated that there were 14.3 million drug users, among whom close to 3 million abuse drugs [4]. In Nigeria, a nationwide study by the WHO in 2016 and UBE, 2016 reported that 7.5% of individuals had ever used cannabis, and 12.0% had ever used drugs, of particular concern in Nigeria is the significant association between drug use and crime rates. Recent research indicates that young people, influenced by psychoactive substances, are increasingly involved in various crimes, including terrorism, banditry, and kidnapping [5-7]. In Southern part of Nigeria, a range between 50.2% and 78.4% indicating a very high rate of current alcohol use was observed by [8]. More so, In Enugu State, there was a noticeable disparity in substance use patterns, in alcohol consumption, 92.5% of patient’s males consume more than females 7.5%. In Tobacco consumption, 96.1% patient’s males smoke more than female 1.0%. While in marijuana usage, 100% of patient’s males consume more than their female counterparts 0.0% ([9], 2010 cited in [8]). Furthermore, substance use has been linked to additional social challenges such as high school dropouts and weak parental backgrounds [10].

The misuse of these substances can cause the development of drug abuse, which is a significant social and public health concern globally. This issue affects individuals across all demographic groups, but adolescents and youths, who are undergoing physiological and psychological development, are particularly vulnerable. This age group is often characterized by self-exploration, heightened curiosity, and a propensity for risk-taking [11].

Drug abuse refers to the dependence on and misuse of drugs by individuals who voluntarily use them for their effect on the central nervous system. This term has been adopted to replace past popular terms such as ‘illicit drug use, substance abuse and drug addiction/dependence. Two related categories, substance abuse and addiction/dependence constitute drug abuse. Both terms refer to maladaptive patterns of substance use that result in impairment or distress [12].

Historically, substance use was often intertwined with religious, cultural, and medicinal practices. Ancient texts from civilizations such as the Sumerians, Egyptians, and Greeks document the use of substances like alcohol, opium, and cannabis for various purposes, including rituals, recreation, and pain relief [13]. However, not until the year nineteenth and twenty centuries that medical professionals and researchers began to systematically study the effects of substance use on individuals’ physical and mental health. The identification of drug abuse as a clinical disorder gained traction in the 20th century, driven by advancements in psychiatry, psychology, and addiction medicine. Early pioneers in the field, recognized the addictive potential of substances like cocaine and alcohol and explored the psychological underpinnings of addiction [14]. Additionally, the introduction of diagnostic frameworks provided standardized criteria for identifying and diagnosing substance-related disorders [15].

Drug abuse is characterized by different kinds of symptoms and behaviour that indicate impairment in various areas of functioning. These symptoms may include:

Loss of Control: Individuals with drug abuse often have the challenge of been control by substance use despite negative consequences, such as legal issues, relationship problems, or health issues. They may repeatedly attempt to cut down or quit using substances but find themselves unable to do so.

Craving: Intense cravings or urges to use substances are common in individuals with drug abuse. These cravings can be activated by emotional states environmental cues, or stress and may contribute to continued substance use despite efforts to abstain.

Tolerance: Over time, individuals with drug abuse may develop resistance to the effects of substances, requiring increasing amounts to achieve the desired effects. This tolerance can lead to escalated substance use with an increased likelihood of overdose or other adverse consequences.

Withdrawal: When individuals with drug abuse attempt to reduce or stop using substances, they may experience withdrawal symptoms such as nausea, sweating, anxiety, or tremors. These warning sign can be psychologically and physically distressing, making it difficult to maintain abstinence.

Impaired Functioning: Drug abuse often impairs individuals’ functioning in various areas of life, including work, school, relationships, and social activities. They may neglect responsibilities, experience difficulties in interpersonal relationships, or engage in risky behaviours to obtain or use substances.

Continued use despite negative consequences: Notwithstanding adverse consequences related to substance use, individuals with drug abuse may continue to use substances compulsively. This pattern of continued use despite adverse outcomes is a hallmark feature of the disorder [15].

As a significant public health concern with developmental dimensions, researchers have identified several socio-demographic factors linked with drug abuse. These contributory factors are related to individuals, family, community and the clinic of the patients. The identified factors include gender, age, personal beliefs, low self-esteem, experiences of abuse, depression, poor coping skills and early exposure to or involvement in risk-taking behaviour [8].

Factors related to the family have also been identified such as parental practice and attitude towards drug use, for example, watching parents/guardians engaging in use may act as an endorsement of its usefulness [8]. Then again, family functioning encompasses various dimensions (cohesion, expressiveness and conflict) of interaction, communication, roles, and dealings in the family unit. Family functioning can be understood through a systemic lens, viewing the family as unified system where the behaviour of one member influences, and is influenced by the behaviour of others [16]. According to this perspective, family functioning is characterized by patterns of communication, power dynamics, and role assignments that maintain equilibrium or contribute to dysfunction within the system. From a transactional standpoint, family functioning is conceptualized as the ongoing exchange of behaviours, emotions, and resources among family members [17]. This perspective emphasizes the reciprocal nature of interactions within the family system, highlighting how individuals’ actions and reactions shape relational dynamics and contribute to the overall functioning of the family. Family functioning can also be viewed from an adaptive framework, which focuses on the people’s capacity to respond and adapt to internal and external stressors [18]. A family’s adaptive capacity is reflected in its resilience, problem-solving skills, and ability to maintain cohesion and support in spite of the challenges such as illness, transitions, or conflicts. The developmental perspective considers family functioning in terms of its evolution and change over time, taking into account normative developmental tasks and transitions across the family life cycle [19]. This perspective highlights how important age-appropriate role adjustments, renegotiation of boundaries, and shifts in relational dynamics as family members navigate various developmental stages from infancy to old age. Finally, family functioning can be understood within an ecological framework that considers the broader context in which the family operates, including cultural, socioeconomic, and environmental factors [20].

This perspective recognizes the influence of external systems and contexts on family dynamics, emphasizing the interconnectedness between the family and its social, economic, and cultural milieu. The impact of family functioning on drug abuse is a multifaceted and extensively studied topic in psychology and addiction research. Family dynamics, interactions, and relationships plays key role in determining an individual’s susceptibility to, initiation of, and recovery from drug abuse. Firstly, family environment and structure significantly influence the development of drug abuse. Research indicates that dysfunctional family structures characterized by no communication, absence of parental involvement, marital discord [21]. The absence of a nurturing and supportive family environment may predispose individuals to seek solace or escape through substance use, as they lack healthy coping mechanisms for dealing with stressors or emotional challenges. Secondly, parental substance abuse serves as a significant risk factor for intergenerational transmission of drug abuse. Children of parents with drug abuses are more likely to develop similar patterns of behaviour due to genetic predispositions, modeling of parental behaviour, and exposure to an environment where substance use is normalized [22]. More so, Individuals from dysfunctional family environments may engage in heightened self-evaluation processes as they navigate conflicting messages or experiences within their family systems. This internal reflection can lead to increased awareness of the impact of family dynamics on their substance use behaviour and motivation for seeking help or making changes.

Moreover, these children often experience neglect, abuse, or chaotic home environments, further exacerbating their vulnerability to drug abuse. Furthermore, family dynamics such as communication patterns, conflict resolution strategies, and parental monitoring exert profound effects on drug abuse outcomes. Families characterized by poor communication or conflict avoidance may hinder open dialogue about substance use, thereby impeding early intervention or support-seeking behaviours [23]. Conversely, families with strong communication channels and effective problem-solving skills are better equipped to address issues relating substance use providing instrumental support to affected members. Additionally, the quality of parent-child relationships significantly impacts drug abuse trajectories. Warm, supportive, and authoritative parenting styles have been linked to lower rates of substance abuse initiation and progression [24]. In contrast, hostile, neglectful, or overly permissive parenting styles may foster resentment, rebellion, or a lack of attachment, increasing the likelihood of drug abuse development [25].

Core self-evaluation in the setting of substance use refers to the process by which individuals assess their own behaviours, thoughts, feelings, and consequences related to substance use with the aim of gaining insight, making informed decisions, and initiating behaviour change [26]. This self-assessment often involves reflection on one’s patterns of substance use, the impact on various areas of life (e.g., relationships, work, health), motivations for using substances, and readiness to change. CSE is a crucial component of several evidence-based approaches to substance abuse treatment, including motivational interviewing and cognitive-behavioural therapy. In motivational interviewing, self-evaluation is facilitated through open-ended questioning, reflective listening, and exploration of ambivalence about change [27]. By eliciting and amplifying discrepancies between a person’s values, goals, and current behaviours, clinicians aim to evoke intrinsic motivation for change and enhance self-awareness. Within cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT), self-evaluation involves identifying and challenging maladaptive thoughts, beliefs, and coping strategies accompanying substance use [28]. Through techniques such as self-monitoring, functional analysis, and cognitive restructuring, individuals learn to evaluate the triggers, cues, and consequences of their substance use more objectively and develop alternative coping skills to manage cravings and high-risk situations.

Core Self-evaluation also plays vital role in the maintenance of recovery from substance use. Individuals in recovery engage in ongoing self-assessment to monitor their progress, identify potential relapse triggers, and address any lapses in coping strategies [29]. This reflective process fosters self-awareness, self-regulation, and individual feeling of responsibility for maintaining sobriety. Moreover, self-evaluation is not limited to individual introspection but can also be facilitated through peer support groups, such as alcoholics anonymous or narcotics anonymous, where individuals share their experiences, strengths, and challenges in a supportive environment [30]. By hearing others’ stories and receiving feedback from peers, individuals can gain new perspectives, validate their experiences, and learn from shared struggles and successes.

The moderating influence of core self-evaluation on the connection between family functioning and drug abuse elucidates the intricate interplay between family dynamics, individual cognitive processes, and the development or maintenance of awkward substance use behaviours. Family functioning, encompassing aspects such as communication patterns, parental monitoring, and emotional support, significantly influences an individual’s risk for drug abuse [21]. Dysfunctional family environments characterized by conflict, neglect, or poor communication may contribute to maladaptive coping strategies and increased vulnerability to drug abuse [23].

Moreover, core self-evaluation plays a fundamental role in the effectiveness of interventions targeting substance use within the family context. Family-based interventions often incorporate components aimed at enhancing self-awareness, motivation, and decision-making skills [31]. By facilitating self-evaluation, these interventions empower individuals to critically assess the role of family functioning in their substance use and to explore alternative coping strategies or support networks. Additionally, core self-evaluation may be a defensive factor against the negative effects of dysfunctional family environments on substance use outcomes. Those with developed levels of self-awareness and self-regulation may be better equipped to resist family influences or to seek external sources of support and validation [29]. Thus, core self-evaluation acts as a mechanism through which individuals can mitigate the impact of adverse family dynamics on their substance use behaviours and outcomes. Therefore, it is against this backdrop that this study will explore how core self-evaluation influences the relationship between family functioning and patients with drug abuses.

Statement of the Problem

Drug abuse has significant public health concern affecting patients, families and society at large which the researcher discovered during her clinical internship experience at 82 division hospital rehabilitation centers, Enugu. Where the researcher noticed that about seven (7) male patients out of every 10 male patients are diagnose with drug abuse. So, it became a concern to the researcher. And a lot of questions went through my mind as to what could be the psychological factor to such problem and so the researcher decided to do a study on this very topic drug abuse and other factors in order to answer the questions in her mind. However, I looked out for past researcher like [32] they did research on perceived parenting styles and personality factors as predictors of drug abuse with the populations of adolescent student in Enugu. [33] also did a work on how family dynamics relate to coping mechanisms among individuals diagnosed with drug abuse. Research has shown that family functioning plays an important role in either protecting against or contributing to the development of drug abuse. But notwithstanding is not everyone from a dysfunctional family that will develop drug abuse, that means there are other factors like the presence of a moderator that influences the relationship.

One of such moderators is core self-evaluation (CSE), which is a person’s knowledge of their own worth, competence and ability to handle challenges. So, individuals with positive core self-evaluations may perceive adverse family environments differently and be more resilient to stressors that can lead to drug abuse but individuals with negative CSE may be prone to dysfunctional family and this can intensification the likelihoods of drug abuse.

This study aims to investigate how core self-evaluation influences the relationship between family functioning and patients who abuses drug. By focusing on this moderation process, the research seeks to provide deeper insights into the interplay between family influences and individual psychological factors, ultimately contributing to the development of more targeted and effective intervention strategies for addressing drug abuse in patients.

Thus, the following pertinent questions concerning drug abuse among patients need to be justified in this regard.

1. Will family functioning (expressiveness, cohesion and conflict) relate with drug abuse?
2. Will core self-evaluation correlate with drug abuse?
3. Will core self-evaluation moderate the connection between family functioning and drug abuse?

Purpose of Study

This study is aimed at examining the role of core self-evaluation as a moderator in the relationship between family functioning and patients with drug abuse.

Hence;

• To examine whether family functioning (expressiveness, cohesion and conflict) will significantly relate with drug abuse.
• To examine whether core self-evaluation will significantly correlate with drug abuse.
• To examine whether core self-evaluation will significantly moderate the connection between family functioning and drug abuse.

Operational Definition of Key Study Variables

Core Self Evaluation denotes a person’s fundamental appraisal of their own self-worth, competence, and capacity to manage their environment and behaviour as measured by Core Self Evaluation Scale developed by [1].

Family Functioning is a distinct perception of an individual, about their family and how things are managed, as measured by Brief Family Relationship Scale, developed by [2].

Drug abuse is a health disorder characterized by lack of control over the use of legal or illegal substances, despite harmful consequences as measured by drug abuse Screening Test, developed by [3].

Method

Participants

Eighty-eight (88) participants were drawn from the population of patients comprising males only. The researcher used Simple random sampling technique to select hospitals while purposive sampling technique (Inclusion and Exclusion criteria) were adopted in selecting patients. Inclusion Criteria (the participants must be an inpatient that has insight and must have use one or more substance and exclusion (those who have never used substance will be excluded and the outpatient). Their age range is 18-65 with mean age of 33.83 and standard deviation of 9.728. The questionnaire was also used to get information on demographic variables such as marital status, educational qualification, age, occupation, family upbringing.

Instruments

Three instruments were used which include:

Core Self Evaluation Scale (CSES; [1])

The Brief Relationship Scale (TBRS; [2])

Drug Abuse Screening Test (DAST-10; [3])

Core Self Evaluation Scale (CSES)

It is a 12-item, Likert-typed scale, with responses ranging from Strongly Disagree to Strongly Agree, developed by [1]. Used in assessing a person’s fundamental appraisals of their own worth, competence, and capabilities. Locus of control was less highly correlated with the CSES, with an average corrected correlation of SO. Overall, though, the CSES showed significant convergence with the four core traits. [1] reported a Cronbach Alpha of .85. [34] validated the instrument among undergraduate students with substance abuse problems, while [35] adopted CSES among bank employees. The researcher conducted a pilot study from 82 Division hospital using 20 participants and Cronbach alpha .67.

The Brief Family Relationship Scale (TBFRS; [2]).

The Relationship dimension of the Family Environment Scale, comprising Cohesion, Expressiveness, and Conflict subscales, developed by [2], assesses an individual’s perception of the quality of their family relationship functioning.

Convergent and distinct (discriminant validity) of the Scale was evaluated through correlational analysis, yielding significant results .70. The researcher conducted a pilot study from 82 Division hospital using 21 participants and it yielded Cronbach alpha of .74

Drug abuse Screening Test (DAST-10;[3])

The Drug abuse Screening Test (DAST) is a 10-item designed test to offer a concise tool for clinical and non-clinical screening to identify drug abuse or dependence disorders by Skinner (1982). The DAST-10 was found to be a psychometrically sound drug abuse screening measure with high convergent validity (r=.76) when correlation with the Drug Use Disorders Identification Test (DUDIT) was measured and to have a Cronbach’s alpha of .92. In addition, a single component accounted for 59.35% of total variance, and the DAST-10 had sensitivity and specificity scores of .98 and .91, respectively, when using the optimal cut-off score of 4. Additionally, the DAST-10 presented good discriminate validity as it strongly differentiates patients with drug use disorder from those with alcohol dependence. the instrument was validated by [32] with Kuder Richardson internal consistency of .89 obtain by the researcher mentioned with 60 adolescents.

Procedure

The researcher listed down all the Public Mental Health centers in Enugu which includes Federal Neuropsychiatric Hospital New Haven, 82 Division Military Hospital (Neuroscience and Intelligence Center), Nigeria Correctional Service and Parklane teaching Hospital Neuro-psychiatric clinic. Through the help of a research assistant, the researcher picked two names from Public Mental Health Centers and this was done using simple random sampling technique (balloting) and purposive sampling technique (inclusion and exclusion) was employed to choose patients from the two hospitals. Inclusion criteria of patients that participant must have used one or two substances, have insight so he can answer questions and lastly the participant must be an inpatient. Exclusion criteria- those patients who do not use substance will be excluded and the outpatient will also be excluded.

The researcher got a letter of introduction from the HOD of Psychology Department and then submitted it to the people in charge of the two public mental health hospitals selected. A letter of introduction was summited to the Nigeria Correctional Service, Enugu headquarter by the researcher and they responded to the researcher with an approval letter which also served as a gate pass to where I can have access to the prisoner through the help of clinical psychologist and the warden who help in bringing the inmates to the psychological unit so that they can fill in the questionnaires and while they are filling it the warden stands by for the safety of the researcher and psychologist and to also take them back to the prison when they are done. Meanwhile fifty (50) copies of questionnaires were sampled at Nigeria Correctional Service center, Enugu and forty-eight (48) was collected and used (those correctly ticked) for the research. These lasted for a duration of one week and each day as I arrive, I pass through the gate with my gate pass leaving my bag with the security outside the building because am only allowed to go with my book and pen since the questionnaire has been summited to the clinical psychologist. As I entered the gate a female warden will search me before taken me to the psychological unit for me to sit and wait for the inmates who are willing to come out. The researcher also summited the letter of introduction to Federal Neuropsychiatric Hospital New Haven and the researcher was ask to summit a copy of the research proposal that it has to be review before approval and the researcher did that which was requested from the hospital authorities. Then after a span of time the researcher was called to come and collect the approval letter. The researcher headed to the HOD of the psychological unit and she assigned to the researcher clinical psychologist who could help the researcher to reach the Drug abuse patients. It lasted for two weeks because am only allowed to come three times in a week which are the days the researcher can see the patients and the psychologist. Fifty (50) copies of questionnaires were also sample at Federal Neuropsychiatric Hospital New Haven and forty (40) was selected and used (those filled correctly). The total number of 100 copies of questionnaires were printed and shared into two equal parts between the two hospitals and so, 88 out of 100 copies of questionnaires were used. The questionnaire was also used to get information on demographic variables such as marital status, educational qualification, age, occupation, family upbringing.

Design and Statistics

The study adopted correlational research design and moderated hierarchical regression analysis as a statistical tool.

Result

Table 1 describes the correlation matrix. The table discovered that drug abuse and core self-evaluation r (88)=- .702, p<.001. This indicates that patient with low core self-evaluation have the propensity to drug abuse when faced with challenges. Marital status had a positive correlation r (88)=.204, p<.001. this means that those who are not married get involve more with drug abuse. Educational level had a negative relationship with drug abuse r (88)=- .231, p<.001. Meaning that those who are educated have more drug abuse.

Table 1: Descriptive and Correlation Matrix of study constructs

Correlation significant at * P<.001, ** P<.05
Note: N= 88, Gender was coded as (male). Educational Qualification 1 (A level and above) and 2 (O level and below). Family upbringing 1(single parenting) 2(monogamy)3(polygamy). Occupation 1(employed) 2 (self-employed) and 3 (unemployed). Marital status 1 (single) 2(married) and 3 (separated).

In Table 1 above Occupation negatively correlated with drug abuse r (88)=-.330, p<.001. This indict that the ones with job (employed) are more in drug abuse patients.

Note: int_1: Family functioning x core self -evaluation.

In step one of Table 2 above, family functioning did not correlate with drug abuse (β=-.261, t=10.445, P=.072). This implies that patients’ family functioning does not bring about drug abuse. Thus, the first hypothesis which stated “that family functioning will significantly correlate with drug abuse was rejected. The table above further revealed that the moderator variable, core self-evaluation, correlates with drug abuse (β=-.697, t=-9.117, P>.01). This means that the patients’ who have low core self-evaluation are more likely to experience drug abuse. Hence, the second hypothesis which stated that core self-evaluation will significantly correlate with drug abuse is hereby accepted.

Table 2: A table summarizing moderated hierarchical regression analysis on the moderating role of core self-evaluation in relationship between family functioning and drug abuse patient.

a. Dependent Variable: Drug abuse
Note: int_1: Family functioning x core self -evaluation.

However, the table revealed that core self-evaluation did not moderate family functioning in drug abuse (β=.226, t=1.579, P=.118). This means that having high core self-evaluation did not alleviate drug abuse experience in response to family functioning. Thus, the third hypothesis which stated that “core self-evaluation will significantly moderate family functioning in drug abuse” is hereby rejected. The relationship between variables entered in step one yielded (R=.715) and accounted approximately 51.2% (>R² =.494) of the variance in drug abuse scores which contributed significantly to the regression model, F (3,84) =29.357, p=.001. (see appendix C for model summary and ANOVA tables).

Further, the three dimension of family functioning were entered in step two, thus none of the dimensions significantly predicted drug abuse (Cohesion, β=-.203, t=-.671, P>.05; expressiveness, β=-.135, t=-.986, P>.05; Conflict, β=-.105, t=-.559, P>.05). The relationship between variables entered in step two yielded (R=.719) and accounted approximately 51.7% (>R² =.481) of the variance in drug abuse scores which contributed significantly to the regression model, F (6,81) =14.431, p=.001. (see Appendix C for model summary and ANOVA tables).

Forward to step three, the five demographic variables controlled in this study were entered, however, all of them yielded non-significant outcomes with drug abuse (Educational qualification, β=.105, t=1.298, P.>05; occupation, β=-.150, t=-1.836, P.>.05; marital status, β=.012, t =.124, P.>05; Age, β=.083, t=.929, P.>.05). respectively. The relationship between variables entered in step three yielded (R=.749) and accounted for approximately 56.1% (>R2 =.497) of the variance in drug abuse scores, which contributed significantly to the regression model, F (11,76) =8.814, p=.001. (See Appendix C for model summary and ANOVA tables).

Summary of Results

1. Family functioning (cohesion, expressiveness and conflict) did not significantly predict drug abuse among patients.
2. Core self-evaluation, negatively correlated with drug abuse among patients.
3. Core self-evaluation did not moderate the relationship between family functioning and drug abuse among patients.

Discussion

The study examined the moderating role of core self-evaluation in connection between family functioning and drug abuse patients.

This study provides an understanding of the factors influencing drug abuse among patients, focusing on the important of core self-evaluation and family functioning. The researcher discovered that family functioning (cohesion, expressiveness and conflict) did not relate to drug abuse, the hypothesis that said that family functioning will relate with drug abuse was not accepted. This might be because they are full grown adult who are independent of their own decision. This did not agree with the existing literature by [36] which state that children with a family history of drug abuse experienced poorer family functioning compared to those without such history. maybe because the researcher used children while the researcher here used adult.

core self-evaluation correlated with drug abuse in this study. The hypothesis that said core self-evaluation will correlate with drug abuse was accepted. This suggests that patients who have negative core self-evaluation are prone to drug abuse when face with challenges [37]. The study found positive correlations between self-control, self-esteem, resilience, and confidence in managing emotions (self-efficacy). And this is in line with the research finding done by the researcher. Meaning that those with external locus of control tends to attribute their use of drug abuse to others like friends, parent or relations and that will make them feel they are not in control of their actions and such patient is prone to go back to drug abuse.

Interestingly, core self-evaluation did not moderated the connection between family functioning and drug abuse because there was no relationship between family functioning and drug abuse according to the researcher’s findings it was discovered that a patient perception of their family relationship has nothing to do with drug abuse rather it is the patient core self-evaluation(which refers to a patients beliefs about themselves and their abilities) because family relationship is not inherited but environmental characteristic which can be learned and unlearned. Family members can learn cohesion (how to relate) and expressiveness (how to talk to one another) and also learn how to manager conflict in the family. So, the same way patients also learn how to use substance, they can also unlearn. But core self-evaluation is a trait and is inherent and one can learn from the environment how to modify the behaviour for example if the patients who is using external locus of control (that is referring to others as the reason they engage in drug abuse) can learn to use internal locus of control (that is taken responsibility for their action and knowing that the consequences affect them more) and how to handle task and challenges effectively.

Demographic variables such as educational qualification (high level) and occupation (employed) were link to drug abuse maybe because buying this substance requires money.

Implications of the Findings

From a theoretical viewpoint, this study supports and expands social learning theory which posits that individuals learn behaviors, through observation, imitation, and reinforcement within their social environment [38]. This theory highlights the importance of cognitive factors, such as attention, retention, reproduction, and motivation, in shaping human behaviour. Which drug abuse is a negative behaviour that need to be reshaped through paying attention to the effect of drug abuse to human brain. Social learning theory demonstrates how patients’ who have low core self-evaluation can learn by watching others (models) and personal factors (beliefs and attitudes) to modify their core self-evaluation (self-esteem, self-efficacy, locus of control and emotional stability).

Empirical implications, this study will help the mental health professional body to know the importance of a psychology in the management of mental health and addictions in general.

The findings also highlight the need for psychotherapist to always pay attention to the drug abuse patients core self-evaluation, teach them the importance of handling task and challenges well. (self-efficacy), how to stabilize their emotions and also learn to value themselves.

And also, teachers/lecturers and therapist should teach their students and patients when their friends try to introduce substance (external) to them, they should learn how to use internal locus of control to be able to say no.

Those who fail to learn how to use internal locus of control has the tendency of relapse to substance again.

Limitations of the Study

One major limitation of this study

Is that I was unable to identify those who was in the rehab because of relapse.

Secondly, those without insight where not included in the questionnaire which affected the numbers of patients reached.

And other limitations were getting the responses of those who couldn’t read and write.

Suggestions for Further Research

Further studies could sample people with drug abuse in many general hospitals and so as to increase the populations.

Future researcher should add female to the demographics and further research should also investigate other potential moderators and mediators, such as family functioning, workplace and assertiveness

Summary and Conclusion

The research topic is the moderating role of core-self -evaluation in the connection between family and drug abuse. The participants were patients from the two hospitals. correlational research design and moderated hierarchical regression analysis as a statistical tool. This result of the research is that family functioning didn’t correlate with drug abuse meaning that irrespective of the family functioning (cohesion, expressiveness and conflict) it has nothing related to the manifestation of drug abuse. However, core self-evaluation negatively correlates with patients who has low core self-evaluation (external locus of control, low self-esteem, low self-efficacy and emotional instability). Thus far, core self-evaluation fails to moderate family functioning in drug abuse among patients.

Finally, patients who are equipped with high core self-evaluation (internal locus of control, high self-esteem, high self-efficacy and emotional stability) will tend to have absence of substance. use disorder. This is important for all the mental health professionals to always advocate for high core self-evaluation.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Ethical Clearance

All the participants signed the consent form to declare their free consent to participate in the study.

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DOI: 10.31038/PSYJ.2025773

Abstract

Trade wars, though driven by economic objectives, had repercussions extending beyond the economy into social and political spheres. Using a qualitative research design, this study examines the connection between the 2025 trade war and the potential rise of violent extremism by interviewing two key groups: former terrorist offenders, who provide insider perspectives, and terrorism analysts, who offer outsider viewpoints on extremist groups. The findings reveal that contemporary extremists can be categorized by ideology, scope, generational cohort, and behavioral patterns. The study further highlights how global economic instability, which leads to local crises, can exacerbate extremism and criminal behavior, particularly within vulnerable communities. This study identifies three classifications of extremists based on their responses to economic crises: “deradicalized”, “exploiters”, and “vulnerable”.

Keywords

2025 Trade war, Economic crises, Extremism, Radicalism, Terrorism

Introduction

In 2025, the United States, under Donald Trump’s presidency, escalated trade tensions by imposing high tariffs on goods imported from major economies such as the European Union (EU), China, and several ASEAN countries [1]. While these protectionist policies aimed to bolster domestic industries, they inadvertently disrupted the global economy. Simultaneously, a surge in extremist activities worldwide sparked concerns that such economic measures might be fueling the spread of radical ideologies. The Trump administration adopted an aggressive trade policy approach in 2025, implementing tariffs as high as 50% on European products while significantly increasing import taxes on goods from China and ASEAN countries. These measures were originally aimed to address trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. However, the abrupt policy shifts created substantial market instability, strained international relations, and triggered retaliatory measures from affected nations. For instance, the EU considered imposing counter-tariffs targeting U.S. technology firms, while ASEAN nations sought to mitigate the economic impact by strengthening trade partnerships with China and members of the Gulf Cooperation Council [2]. The imposition of tariffs significantly disrupted global supply chains, leading to higher production costs and subsequent price increases for consumers. While U.S. consumer confidence showed modest improvement following the trade truce with China, broader economic uncertainty persisted. Internationally, economies such as Germany faced potential GDP contractions, while several African nations revised their growth forecasts downward due to tariff-related instability. These economic pressures exacerbated social tensions, creating conditions that extremist groups exploited to capitalize on public discontent [3,4].

Historical precedents demonstrate that economic hardships can fuel extremist ideologies. The economic fallout from the 2025 trade war appears to be replicating this pattern. In the United States, the Department of Homeland Security’s Homeland Threat Assessment 2025 emphasized the ongoing threat posed by domestic violent extremists, many of whom were motivated by anti-government sentiment and conspiracy theories [5]. Globally, regions experiencing economic downturns saw a resurgence of radical groups capitalizing on widespread public discontent, a pattern that, while complex, is supported by various studies. This is evident in the rise of Pentecostal affiliation and political representation in Brazil [6], the growth of radical nationalism in Finland amid economic uncertainty [7], and the “Age of Discontent” framework, which argues that economic crises trigger cultural discontent and fuel the rise of populism and the radical right across several countries [8]. The trade war’s transnational impacts have been particularly evident. In Southeast Asia, ASEAN nations grappling with economic challenges stemming from U.S. tariffs have pursued alternative alliances and trade agreements. These geopolitical realignments not only altered regional power dynamics but also created opportunities for extremist groups to exploit perceptions of Western economic aggression. Similarly, in the Middle East, economic destabilization caused by U.S. tariffs and declining foreign investment contributed to the revival of groups like the Islamic State, which strategically leveraged the resulting chaos to recruit members and expand their influence [9].

While empirical evidence on the direct impact of trade wars on extremism remains limited, economic crises are known to significantly influence political extremism and terrorism. Historical patterns demonstrate that economic downturns frequently correlate with increased support for far-right and anti-establishment movements. This phenomenon was evident in Europe during both the 1930s Great Depression and the recent global financial crisis. Supporting this observation, a longitudinal study across 23 EU countries (1995-2012) revealed that declining GDP and rising unemployment rates consistently corresponded with growing electoral support for extremist parties, particularly far-left groups [10]. However, the relationship between economic hardship and extremism demonstrates significant complexity. In the U.S. context, Republican donors residing in foreclosure-affected areas showed reduced support for Tea Party candidates during the housing crisis [11]. On the other hand, research on Russian terrorism reveals that economic crises may produce contradictory effects on extremist activities: while economic distress can fuel public anger and potentially increase terrorist motivations, it may simultaneously constrain operational capabilities by limiting available resources [12]. These findings collectively suggest that the nexus between economic crises and political extremism is context-dependent, with outcomes varying according to specific circumstances. This study seeks to examine the intricate relationship between the 2025 trade war and the potential resurgence of violent extremism, as there is currently no research on this connection, incorporating viewpoints from both extremist networks and external sources. This will constitute the novelty of this study. Through in-depth interviews with two key stakeholder groups—former terrorist offenders (providing insider perspectives) and counterterrorism experts (offering external analyses), this study examines whether the 2025 US trade war’s economic disruptions may catalyze extremist violence. By elucidating the potential correlation between trade-induced economic shocks and extremist escalation, this study hopes to contribute in the development of mitigation strategies during periods of global economic and geopolitical instability.

Trade Wars

Definition of a Trade War

Trade wars are economic conflicts where countries impose retaliatory tariffs or trade restrictions to protect domestic industries or address trade imbalances [13,14]. These conflicts can arise from various factors, including uneven trade benefits, technological rivalries, and protectionist policies. The US-China trade war demonstrates such conflicts, with the US seeing China’s growth as a threat to its trade supremacy [15]. Trade wars can significantly impact global trade, economic growth, and international relations. The dynamic process of trade wars involves gradual tariff rises by one country, eventually prompting retaliation from the affected nations [16]. Depending on market characteristics, retaliation may lead to liberalisation or escalate into a full-scale trade war. Economist Douglas A. Irwin’s definition of trade war is a situation in which countries attempt to damage each other’s economy, usually through the tariff’s imposition or quota restrictions. It often lead to economic inefficiencies and increased tensions between nations [17]. Trade wars emerge as a direct consequence of protectionist economic policies designed to shield domestic industries through import restrictions. These measures, which include tariffs, import quotas, and regulatory barriers, fundamentally alter global economic dynamics by creating uncertainty that affects business investment patterns, disrupts global value chains, and distorts market expectations.

According to Xu (2024), protectionist interventions not only impede international trade flows but also elevate production costs and generate inflationary pressures across economies. The Sino US trade war, initiated amid economic tensions and mutual allegations of unfair trade practices, has significantly impacted strategic industries and constrained international investment flows [18]. The resulting global economic uncertainty has transmitted through financial markets, affecting both advanced and emerging economies [19]. Although current protectionist measures have demonstrated limited economic disruption to date, potential escalation poses substantial risks to global growth prospects and the Euro area [20]. This protectionism induced uncertainty adversely affects economic sentiment and potentially undermines long term market confidence. Empirical evidence from microeconomic firm data and macroeconomic analyses confirms that heightened trade policy uncertainty consistently suppresses corporate investment activity [21].

Historical Overview of Trade Wars

1. The Anglo-Dutch Trade Wars (17th Century). One of the earliest examples of a trade war occurred between England and the Dutch Republic in the 17th century. These conflicts involved both military and economic rivalry, including naval battles and commercial competition. In 1651, England passed the Navigation Acts, which restricted the use of foreign ships for trade between England and its colonies. This legislation aimed to weaken Dutch maritime dominance and ultimately led to a series of naval conflicts known as the Anglo-Dutch Wars. The outcome of these trade wars helped England establish itself as a dominant maritime and commercial power for centuries to come [22].

2. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930). One of the most infamous trade wars in modern history was triggered by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act during the Great Depression. Passed by the U.S. Congress in 1930, the act imposed steep tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods. In retaliation, many countries raised their own tariffs, leading to a sharp decline in global trade. As a result, world trade plummeted by an estimated 65% between 1929 and 1934, exacerbating the global economic downturn [23].

3. The Chicken War (1960s). In the early 1960s, a trade dispute known as the “Chicken War” erupted between the U.S. and the European Economic Community (EEC) over tariffs on American poultry exports. After the EEC imposed protective tariffs, the U.S. retaliated by levying duties on European imports, most notably a 25% tariff on light trucks, including the popular Volkswagen Type 2 van. This measure had lasting consequences, in which the light truck tariff, which remains in effect as of the 2020s, has profoundly influenced the structure of the U.S. automobile industry for decades [24].

4. U.S.-China Trade War (2018–2020). The most prominent and widely documented trade war in recent history began in 2018 under the Trump administration, as tensions escalated between the United States and China. The U.S. accused China of engaging in unfair trade practices, including intellectual property theft and forcing technology transfers from foreign firms. In retaliation, the U.S. imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, prompting China to respond with counter-tariffs on American goods. This trade conflict had far-reaching consequences: it disrupted global supply chains, increased costs for manufacturers and consumers, and amplified economic uncertainty worldwide [25]. Additionally, it sparked a reassessment of global trade dependencies and contributed to a resurgence of economic nationalism across multiple countries.

Consequences of Trade Wars

Trade wars typically result in several key consequences: 1) higher consumer prices due to increased costs of imported goods, 2) supply chain disruptions, reducing efficiency and eroding competitiveness, 3) retaliatory measures from trading partners, escalating international tensions, and 4) adverse effects on global economic growth, particularly in interconnected sectors such as technology, agriculture, and automotive industries. According to the International Monetary Fund [26], the trade tensions and tariffs imposed between 2018 and 2019 slowed global economic growth, ultimately reducing world GDP by approximately 0.8% by 2020.

1. Disruption of Global Supply Chains. One of the primary mechanisms through which trade wars trigger economic crises is by disrupting global supply chains. In today’s interconnected economy, production processes often span multiple countries before final assembly. Tariffs raise the cost of intermediate goods, increasing production costs and reducing operational efficiency. During the U.S.-China trade war (2018–2020), for instance, U.S. manufacturers faced higher input costs due to tariffs on Chinese components, while Chinese exporters experienced reduced demand for their goods. Sectors with complex supply chains, such as automotive and electronics, were particularly vulnerable. A Federal Reserve study found that U.S. tariffs led to significant cost increases for domestic manufacturers and a measurable decline in industrial output [27]. Long-term consequences included widespread corporate uncertainty. Many firms delayed investments, restructured operations, or relocated production, often at substantial expense, to mitigate political and trade risks. This reconfiguration of supply chains further strained global economic stability.

2. Consumer Price Inflation and Reduced Purchasing Power. Tariffs function as a tax on imported goods, typically leading to higher consumer prices. Research by Amiti et al. [28] revealed that during the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade conflict, American consumers and firms absorbed most of the additional costs from tariffs. These price increases reduced household purchasing power, which is crucial for maintaining GDP growth. When consumers have less to spend, overall economic demand weakens, business revenues decline, layoffs often follow, and economic growth slows. Prolonged trade conflicts may even trigger stagflation, which is a dangerous combination of rising prices and economic stagnation that, while rare, can cause severe damage. Multiple studies have examined the economic consequences of the U.S.-China trade war and potential broader global trade conflicts. Simulation results indicate that in a scenario of widespread global trade tensions, world GDP could decline by up to 1.96% with global trade volumes falling by 17% over the medium term [29]. The immediate impact of the U.S.-China dispute alone reduced GDP by 0.1% in the United States and 0.2% in China. The long-term effects appear more substantial, with potential losses reaching 1.6% for the U.S. and 2.5% for China, primarily due to reduced capital investment and diminished technological collaboration between the two nations [30]. Both countries experienced decreased energy demand and slower economic growth, which could further disrupt global energy markets [31]. While some nations may benefit from trade diversion effects, the overall impact on the global economy tends to be negative [32]. The conflict altered relative prices, disrupting established production networks and shifting comparative advantages in key sectors including transportation, electronics, and machinery.

3. Investor Uncertainty and Capital Flight. Trade wars generate significant policy uncertainty that undermines investor confidence. When trade policies become unpredictable, businesses typically delay decisions regarding expansion, innovation, and workforce growth. This cautious “wait-and-see” approach reduces aggregate investment and slows productivity growth [33]. The financial repercussions extend further as international investors may divest from nations engaged in trade conflicts, particularly those exhibiting economic vulnerability or political instability. Such capital outflows can trigger currency depreciation, increase borrowing costs, and potentially spark financial crises—especially in developing economies dependent on foreign investment.

4. Vulnerability of Emerging Markets. Emerging markets face heightened vulnerability during trade wars. These economies typically depend on exports for growth and require imports for critical industrial inputs. When major economic powers like the U.S. and China engage in trade conflicts, the ripple effects are global. Nations across Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America frequently experience reduced demand for their exports, volatile capital flows, and currency depreciation. These combined factors significantly elevate the risk of economic crises [34].

5. Poverty. Trade wars may impact poverty levels in developing countries through complex and indirect mechanisms. While trade expansion generally promotes economic growth, its benefits are often unevenly distributed across societal groups [35]. Trade conflicts influence poverty through multiple channels: (1) price volatility for essential goods, (2) labor market disruptions, (3) reduced government fiscal capacity, (4) heightened economic uncertainty, and (5) constrained GDP growth [36]. The ultimate poverty effects depend on three key factors: the severity of market disruptions, institutional capacity for risk mitigation, and labor demand elasticity. Particular attention must be paid to vulnerable populations, including women, rural communities, informal sector workers, and other marginalized groups [37].

Extremism

Extremism represents a multifaceted threat to both societal cohesion and fundamental rights [38]. Defined by the use of coercive violence to impose ideological or belief systems [39], its manifestations challenge common assumptions—particularly regarding religious extremism’s prevalence, which stems from complex interplays between individual psychology and communal dynamics [40]. From a psychological perspective, extremism is viewed as a form of deviant behavior that arises when there is an imbalance in motivation, where one need becomes so dominant that it overrides other needs and behavioral norms [41]. To address violent extremism requires identifying the specific needs or motivations that contribute to it and recognizing the role of external agents influencing or managing the difficulty level in carrying out extremist activities [42].

Research suggests that extremism is motivated by several psychological factors. According to significance quest theory, there are three main causes: a strong need to feel important or meaningful, a belief system that justifies the use of violence, and support from others with the same views [43]. Relative deprivation – the feeling of being treated unfairly or having less than others – is identified as an important factor that helps to explain various forms of violent extremism. This includes actions to change or protect existing social or political systems [44]. Extremism can manifest in both destructive forms (such as terrorism) and constructive forms (such as scientific breakthroughs). It can influence different parts of culture as well as individual decision-making. Understanding the psychological factors that lead to extremism is important to develop effective interventions to reduce dangerous extremist behaviors and redirect them to more constructive directions. These psychological insights offer a clear framework for studying and responding to different forms of extremism in different cultural and social settings.

Methods

Design

This study employed a qualitative research design to examine the relationship between the 2025 trade war and violent extremism. The qualitative technique was employed to gather extensive information regarding the relationship between factors. Due to various challenges in terrorism research, including confidentiality concerns and skepticism from both authorities and terrorist perpetrator [45,46], a qualitative methodology is more suitable for investigating the connection between the 2025 trade war and violent extremism.

Participants

This study involved ten deradicalized Indonesian terrorist offenders, a foreign (American) terrorist suspect, and eleven analysts/experts on terrorism (Table 1). Their ages ranged from 30 to 75 years. The terrorist offenders faced charges that included the Bali bombing, robbery, obstruction of justice, financing terrorism, involvement in worldwide terrorist networks, espionage, recruitment, and military training for terrorism. They were affiliated with militant organizations such as Jamaah Islamiyah/JI/Al Qaeda, ISIS, and Hezbollah. The eleven experts comprised forensic psychologists/terrorist profilers, senior officers from the Special Task Force Anti-Terrorism/Detachment 88 of the National Police (Densus 88), and several American, Indonesian, Malaysian, and Singaporean government think tanks (security consultants and advisors working for anti-terrorism agencies and various ministries), all of whom possess esteemed credentials.

Table 1: Participants of this study.

The study participants were selected through purposive sampling. To mitigate bias in purposive sampling, we initially defined the experts in this study as those possessing over ten years of experience in economics, social sciences, and/or counterterrorism; whereas the former offenders/suspects as those who were already deradicalized and whose names were recommended/referenced by counter-terrorism agencies/organizations (e.g., BNPT, Densus 88, the Ministry of Religious Affairs, and others). Secondly, we utilized inter-rater assessment in coding, categorizing, and interpreting the data acquired from participant interviews.

Procedure and Materials

A review of participant names, initial outreach, and communication with potential participants was conducted, followed by organized interviews with individuals who consented to participate in this study. Before the interviews, participants who agreed to take part in the study provided verbal consent to be involved. Interviews were conducted in May and June 2025 by the principal researcher of this study in Indonesia and the United States. Each participant engaged in a single interview session lasting approximately 30 to 40 minutes. Interviews were conducted in Bahasa Indonesia or English, with the researcher recording responses manually as participants opted against digital recording. Prior to concluding each interview, the researcher verified the written notes with the participant for accuracy to prevent misunderstanding and bias.

Analysis

The participants’ answers were compiled in a table for qualitative analysis. This enabled researchers to identify key similar concepts. The researchers subsequently deliberated on the participants’ replies and coding to ensure inter-rater agreement. They subsequently analysed the data using an inductive approach to identify a general pattern.

Results and Discussion

Extremists’ Perspectives on the 2025 Trade War

The findings of this study suggest that up-to-date extremists can be classified based on their scope, gender, ideology, hierarchical position within terrorist organisations, role, occupation, motivations for joining terrorist groups, generational cohort, and behavioural changes (Table 2). Extremists can be categorised as female or male, leaders or non-leaders, entrepreneurs or labourers, economically or non-economically oriented, religion- or non-religion-based, non-deradicalized or deradicalized, and active or passive. Regarding scope, there exist both local/home-grown and global extremists. Generational classifications include non-Gen Z individuals, specifically Baby Boomers (born 1946–1964), Generation X (born 1965–1980), and Millennials (born 1981–1996), as well as Gen Z or younger (born 1997 or later). The participants emphasise the Gen Z and younger cohort to anticipate the post-Artificial Intelligence (AI) age, as Gen Z is seen as a ‘cyber/digital generation’, fundamentally differing from preceding generations in many aspects of life. Although previous studies have recommended many classifications of terrorists or extremists, the participants of this study advocate for more simplified categories for pragmatic investigative objectives following the disbandment of Jamaah Islamiyah (JI) and the ‘zero-attack’ phenomenon.

Table 2: Classifications of contemporary extremists.

The findings demonstrate that local extremist networks possess a limited understanding of the 2025 trade war in comparison to their global counterparts. Furthermore, extremist leaders and businessmen possess a greater understanding of the 2025 trade war and its ramifications on the daily lives of individuals, in contrast to non-leaders and labourers. Interestingly, participants of this study explain that female extremists (umahat) lack comprehension of global trends and the conflict between nations (USA/allies and China/allies), in contrast to their male kins (husband, father, son). Moreover, Gen Z extremists comprehend global news, including the 2025 trade war and its ramifications, as they consistently engage with news and podcasts on various online.

“Terrorists might be either homegrown or global. The global ones know that big countries might use them as proxies, so they might know about trade conflicts and other global problems. They are well-informed and watch the news because they will utilize any chance they have to propagate their narratives. But the ones who are homegrown don’t know anything about trade wars or geopolitics.” (A political analyst and advisor).

“We, Gen Z, watch news and listen to podcasts on YouTube, Twitter, and other sites. We know what’s going on in the world, including the 2025 Trade War and how it will affect our economy. We even keep up with many trends and know that there are numerous layoffs and campus dropouts in Indonesia because of the economic crisis.” (A former suspect/extremist).

“Our forensic clinical examination shows that these extremists and terrorists have serious problems in two parts of their brains: the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). This means they don’t understand global issues like the 2025 trade war between the US and China. The DLPFC is a very important part of the brain that helps with memory, decision-making, emotion management, executive functioning, and behavior that is focused on goals. The DLPFC has something to do with violent behavior and terrorism. The vmPFC is a critically important part of the brain for social and emotional functioning, like empathy, controlling emotions, and moral competence. It regulates anxiety and fear. The vmPFC mixes cognitive and affective information, which includes human values.” (A forensic clinical psychologist)

“Don’t underestimate us, we follow the news. We know what’s going on in the world. We know about the trade war and other conflicts between the US and China, which affect Indonesia’s economy in the end.” (A bombing perpetrator).

“I doubt that extremists know about this thing (trade war). Their paradigm is different unless the great powers (USA and China) attack Muslim states.” (A senior military and intelligence advisor for several governments).

“They know about the 2025 trade war because their groups have a Foreign Affairs division, meaning they always monitor developments that occur abroad, including the trade war between China and America. So, they study things like this, not only local politics but also global politics. I remember when I interviewed one of the leaders of JI, he said that his division monitors global political developments and with whom they must cooperate.” (A senior journalist and analyst for governments).

The Expected Relationship Between the 2025 Trade War and the Rise of Extremism

The findings in this study show that participants split in opinions about the impact of trade war to the rise of extremism. Most participants argue that global economic challenges resulting in crises may increase the rise of extremism and criminal behaviour, especially to at-risk communities or individuals. Many of them refer to pull and push factors in criminal studies, indicating that economic or financial crises can precipitate various societal issues. They elucidated that economic difficulties may serve as catalysts or supporting factors, among other variables such as socioeconomic disparity, injustice, political instability, and so forth, in the emergence of extremism. Nevertheless, a small contingent of four individuals argues that economic issues are irrelevant to extremism, asserting that ideology is the only driver of such behaviour. These participants were former leaders or high-ranking members of JI (Table 3).

Table 3: Participants’ opinions on economic crises’ impact to the rise of extremism.

The present findings reveal a divergence in participant perspectives regarding the potential impact of the 2025 trade war on extremism. A majority of participants posit that global economic instability may exacerbate extremism and criminal behavior, particularly among vulnerable populations. Drawing upon criminological frameworks, respondents highlighted how economic crises may function as both push and pull factors, interacting with other psychosocial variables—including socioeconomic disparities, systemic injustice, and political instability—to facilitate radicalization. Notably, a minority subset (n=4) of former Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) leaders and high-ranking members maintained that economic factors bear no significant relationship to extremism, asserting ideological commitment as the sole determinant of such behavior (see Table 3). This dissenting perspective underscores the ongoing theoretical debate regarding the relative weights of material deprivation versus ideological conviction in radicalization processes.

“People in underdeveloped regions who are still struggling, poor, and starving are more likely to commit terrorist attacks and become radicalized. For example, Poso. That’s the fact. It’s not easy to get people to do violent things while their tummies are full.” (A high-ranked JI member).

“Everywhere, it has become a premise that the greater the socioeconomic inequality, the higher the crime rate.” (A senior economic advisor of the Indonesian government.

“We are really offended when our acts are linked to money issues. Not all poor individuals in developing nations become terrorists. Our acts were based on our beliefs and ideology.” (A bombing perpetrator, former JI member).

“Trade wars and economic crises cannot turn individuals into extremists, but tensions between India and Pakistan can, due to India’s attacks against Muslims in Pakistan. There is a growing argument right now among Afghanistan ex-combatants over how to get to Pakistan from Indonesia to help our brothers and sisters there.” (A former leader of JI).

“Economic crises can turn people to be extreme in mind. Financial issues are not the main driver, but can increase extremism – indirectly maybe, along with other issues such as injustice, discrepancy, and other grievances.” (A senior JI member).

“Economic crises can lead to the rise of extremism as these can enhance existing or create new grievances.” (A senior military and intelligence advisor for several governments).

“The worse the economy in a country, the higher the extremism in its people. When people have nothing to lose – poor and starving, it’s easier to provoke them and escalate extremism in them. Just look at Yemen.” (An American analyst).

This study reveals a typology of psychological responses to economic crises among individuals with extremist affiliations. The findings demonstrate three distinct patterns of reaction and adaptation. First, there are individuals who have undergone significant belief system modification, having disengaged from violence. These individuals exhibit marked affective distress when confronted with economic crises, including inflation, rising prices, increased poverty, and heightened taxation. Their distress extends beyond personal circumstances to encompass broader societal impacts, and they maintain a determined commitment to peace advocacy regardless of external conditions.

In contrast, the study identifies a second category of extremist actors who occupy leadership or senior positions within their organizations and display high levels of radicalization. These “exploiters”-typed extremists individuals strategically exploit economic difficulties, turmoil, and chaos to advance their ideological objectives. They actively disseminate propaganda and recruit new members by framing economic crises as divine punishment for societies that fail to adhere to their prescribed religious practices. This exploitative behavior reflects sophisticated cognitive framing techniques and deliberate manipulation of in-group/out-group dynamics.

A third, more passive group emerges from the findings – individuals who are ‘muted’ members on the periphery of extremist networks while experiencing significant economic hardship. These members demonstrate increased susceptibility to radicalization during periods of economic distress, though they typically refrain from active participation in organizational activities. Their vulnerability appears rooted in the intersection of material deprivation and pre-existing network affiliations.

The study’s typological framework contributes to our understanding of how economic crises function as psychological stressors that interact differentially with individuals’ positions within extremist hierarchies and their stages of radicalization. The findings suggest that economic instability does not produce uniform effects across extremist populations, but rather activates distinct psychological and behavioral patterns depending on individuals’ organizational roles, belief systems, and personal circumstances. Thus, the study has identified three classifications of extremists according to their reactions to economic crises: 1) disengaged from violence/’deradicalized’ individuals who persistently promote peace, 2) ‘exploiters’ who use economic challenges as a means to disseminate extremist narratives and recruit more followers, and 3) ‘vulnerable’ silent individuals who may adopt more radical ideologies in response to economic hardships.

“These economic issues are exploited by recruiters to spread their ideology. They argue that the crises happen because the government is secular or not applying certain religious practices across many aspects.” (A high-ranked JI member).

“Historically proven, economic crises can cause discontentment and anger against authorities which can lead to resistance, fighting, and expressions of dissatisfaction against governments. The extremists use the issue of economic crises to blame the small group of minorities, the top 10%, the capitalists who own all the land and resources, and to promote hate-filled narratives or propaganda to get more people to join them.” (A scholar of Islamic studies, high-ranked counselor to governments).

“High prices, low purchasing power of the people, and various manifestations of economic crises cause two things in vulnerable communities: 1) online gambling due to frustration, or 2) extremism as a means to transcend existence in this world and go to the afterlife.” (An eminent professor in International Relations, Military, and Defense).

“Economic crises can cause someone to become extreme, but this is a very long process. Economic motives are not the only ones; they interact with other factors that can eventually cause people to become extreme. I am one example.” (A young former ISIS member).

Urgent Policy Measures Needed to Mitigate Risks During the 2025 Trade War

The findings of this study reveal several threats that governments must confront following the 2025 trade war, based on perspectives from both internal and external extremist groups. Former terrorist offenders/suspects and experts in various fields highlight current threats/risks, including significant economic and social disparities, political instability, poverty, and the escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan into a religious conflict (Table 4).

Table 4: Current threats according to participants.

“The current threat, in my opinion as an economist, is the governments’ confusion and uncertainty in responding to BRICS versus the USA. This confusion stems from a lack of capacity.” (A senior economic advisor to the Indonesian government).

“The current threat to handle is that the fallout from the Israeli genocide against Palestinians has radicalized several Salafi groups. Although the violence has not yet happened, a new leader or coalition could trigger future jihadi attacks.” (A senior military and intelligence advisor for several governments).

“I think the current risks now are people’s frustration and distrust in their governments’ administrations. In many countries, governments have failed to win people’s hearts. They fail us. People around the world feel ignored and disrespected by their governments. Governments see their people as stupid, but actually they are not.” (A young former female ISIS member).

“Terrorism financing is now a real threat. Extremist narratives and propaganda on social media are often sponsored by terrorist groups. These groups frequently pay to spread extremist stories and propaganda online. Indonesians are generally kind and generous people, which is why these organizations collect money by tricking or manipulating ordinary citizens. They also utilize digital or cryptocurrency to transfer funds to locations like Syria.” (A forensic clinical psychologist).

This study found recommended government responses and strategies to address current threats, as proposed by former terrorist offenders and experts. These include good governance, poverty eradication, effective counternarratives and deradicalization programs, and improvements in education and healthcare systems (Table 5).

Table 5: Participants’ opinions on prompt improvement by governments globally.

“Governments everywhere should adopt a persuasive and inclusive approach, like those successfully used with Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia, which led to its disbandment, and should reduce counterproductive actions such as aggression and repression toward people.” (A senior former member of JI).

“The state should enhance all sectors, including eradicating corruption, advancing education to make it more affordable and accessible to the populace, and enhancing healthcare. Avoid creating frustration among people because frustration can lead to turbulence, chaos, criminality, extremism, and terrorism.” (A young former female member of ISIS).

“The dissolution of JI does not mean the end, because there is potential for new cells to emerge from those who disagree with JI’s dissolution. There are also internal dynamics within JI post-dissolution that could lead to dissatisfaction and the emergence of new cells. Additionally, JI could change its name and strategy, and infiltrate government or non-government agencies to influence policy. Regarding ISIS, it’s crucial to monitor overseas instructions, as they are still consolidating and actively recruiting at this time.” (A senior journalist and analyst for governments).

Conclusion

While trade wars may appear politically advantageous in the short term, they typically incur significant economic costs. These include disruptions to global supply chains, increased consumer prices, erosion of investor confidence, and destabilization of developing markets. The 2025 U.S. trade war, though economically motivated, produced effects extending beyond financial systems into social and political domains. The resulting economic deterioration not only exacerbated international tensions but also created conditions conducive to the proliferation of extremist ideologies. Employing a qualitative research design, this study examines the complex relationship between the 2025 U.S. trade war and potential escalations in violent extremism, incorporating both internal (terrorist group) and external (analytical) perspectives. Through in-depth interviews with former terrorist offenders (insider perspectives) and counterterrorism experts (outsider perspectives), the research investigates whether the 2025 trade war may intensify violent extremism by creating favorable sociopolitical conditions for radicalization.”

The findings have revealed that current extremists are categorised based on their role, scope, ideology, hierarchical position within terrorist organisations, occupation, drives for joining terrorist groups, generational cohort, gender, and behavioural changes. A key revelation concerns the demonstrable secondary effects of the 2025 U.S. trade war on extremism dynamics. The economic disruptions disproportionately impacted vulnerable populations, creating identifiable psychosocial conditions that facilitated radicalization among at-risk communities and individuals. This economic shock appeared to operate as both a structural enabler and psychological accelerant for extremist mobilization. Particularly salient was the emergence of three distinct behavioral phenotypes in response to economic crises. The first group comprised disengaged/“deradicalized” individuals who actively promoted peaceful alternatives despite economic hardships, representing persistent anti-violence voices. In contrast, a second category of strategic actors – termed “exploiters” – systematically leveraged economic distress to amplify extremist narratives and recruitment efforts. Perhaps most concerning was the identification of a third, “vulnerable” silent cohort characterized by heightened vulnerability to radicalization when facing economic deprivation, suggesting a latent risk pool requiring targeted intervention.

The study’s findings yield important implications for evidence-based policymaking informed by psychological principles of radicalization. Drawing on first-hand accounts from former extremists and counterterrorism specialists, the research underscores how multidimensional interventions addressing both socioeconomic conditions and individual psychological vulnerabilities may effectively counter extremist recruitment. At the core of these recommendations lies the need for poverty alleviation programs that target the sense of relative deprivation known to fuel grievances, combined with counter-narrative campaigns that apply principles of cognitive dissonance to disrupt extremist messaging. The findings further highlight the psychological importance of governance reforms that address fundamental human needs for system justification and fairness, alongside improvements to education and healthcare systems that can foster secure attachments and hopeful future orientations. These policy priorities emerge as particularly crucial in light of the socioeconomic disruptions caused by the 2025 U.S. trade war, which appear to have created fertile ground for extremist narratives targeting vulnerable populations.

From a research perspective, the study reveals critical gaps in our quantitative understanding of how macroeconomic shocks interact with known psychological risk factors for radicalization. Future investigations employing longitudinal designs and multilevel modeling could help disentangle the complex relationships between trade-induced economic indicators, individual-level radicalization processes, and community-level transmission of extremist ideologies. Such research would benefit from incorporating both behavioral measures of extremist engagement and emerging neurocognitive markers of vulnerability to radicalization, potentially yielding more precise predictive models for preventive intervention. This integrated approach, combining psychological theory with economic policy analysis, offers a promising framework for developing more effective counter-extremism strategies that address both the structural conditions and individual pathways that facilitate radicalization.

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DOI: 10.31038/PSYJ.2025771

Abstract

This commentary critically evaluates the empirical study An Empirical Study of Integration Models and Mechanisms for Maternity Care in Innovative Vocational Education Systems, which addresses maternal health disparities in underserved China through an integrated vocational training model. Using a mixed-methods design combining PLS-SEM and NVivo analysis, the study reveals both the promise and limitations of integrating simulation-based learning, structured supervision, and early clinical immersion. Key findings include significant improvements in patient satisfaction but no measurable impact on student engagement or maternal complications, highlighting systemic barriers to translating training into clinical outcomes. This commentary discusses the study’s methodological innovations, practical implications for vocational education reform and health policy, and identifies future research directions to enhance the model’s effectiveness.

Introduction: Background and Core Issues

Maternal health disparities persist in underserved regions of China, complication rates remain significantly higher than the national average [1]. A critical underlying factor is the fragmentation of vocational education for maternal care, characterized by three key pain points: (1) a disconnect between theoretical instruction and clinical practice, with delayed exposure to real-world scenarios; (2) fragmented simulation training, often limited to video observations rather than hands-on practice; and (3) inadequate structured supervision, leading to passive student engagement [2]. These gaps contribute to poor emergency response skills among graduates and inconsistent care delivery, exacerbating maternal health risks. Against this backdrop, the empirical study (hereafter referred to as the Study) aims to evaluate an integrated training model combining simulation-based learning, structured clinical supervision, and early clinical immersion. This commentary analyzes the Study’s contributions, limitations, and implications for addressing maternal care challenges in underserved settings.

Innovative Methodology: Mixed-Methods Design

The Study’s strength lies in its rigorous mixed-methods approach, which overcomes the limitations of single-method research:

Quantitative Analysis

Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to analyze data from 300 participants (students, nurses, patients, instructors) across experimental (integrated training) and control (traditional training) groups. This allowed the assessment of causal relationships between constructs (e.g., Staff Training → Patient Satisfaction) and multi-group comparisons to identify intervention effects.

Qualitative Analysis

Thematic analysis using NVivo 14 was applied to 14 semi-structured interviews, exploring implementation barriers and stakeholder experiences. This provided contextual depth to explain quantitative findings.

Triangulation

Convergent validation of quantitative results (e.g., patient satisfaction improvements) with qualitative insights (e.g., staff communication quality) enhanced the credibility of conclusions.

This mixed-methods design is innovative in the Chinese vocational education context, as it links training inputs to both patient-centered outcomes and institutional implementation mechanisms (Luo, 2025).

Key Findings: Promise and Limitations

The Study’s findings reveal a nuanced picture of the integrated model’s effectiveness:

Quantitative Insights

The integrated training significantly predicted higher patient satisfaction (β = 0.863, R² = 0.743), aligning with Kolb’s Experiential Learning Theory. However, no significant relationships were found between student interaction and patient satisfaction, or between patient satisfaction and maternal complications. Critically, the Staff Training construct exhibited weak psychometric validity (Composite Reliability [CR] = 0.337; Average Variance Extracted [AVE] = 0.126), indicating fragmented implementation of training components.

Qualitative Insights

Interviews highlighted key barriers: inconsistent use of simulation tools (e.g., control group students only watched videos), unclear student roles in clinical settings (“We just stood back and watched; we never practiced ourselves”), and systemic constraints like emergency delays and staffing shortages. These insights explain why patient satisfaction improvements did not translate into reduced maternal complications—perceived care quality does not address structural gaps in healthcare delivery.

Together, these findings suggest that while integrated training enhances patient perceptions, it fails to improve clinical outcomes due to poor implementation fidelity and institutional readiness.

Practical and Policy Implications

The Study offers actionable insights for vocational education reform and health policy:

Vocational Education Reform

Standardize simulation training: Mandate high-fidelity simulation实操 with structured checklists to ensure consistent implementation.

Clarify student roles: Develop guidelines for student engagement in clinical care (e.g., assisting with routine tasks under supervision) to reduce role ambiguity.

Strengthen supervision: Allocate dedicated supervisory hours and implement real-time feedback mechanisms to enhance student learning.

Health Policy

Resource allocation: Prioritize funding for simulation equipment and staff training in underserved regions to address resource scarcity.

Cross-sector collaboration: Foster partnerships between education and health sectors to align training curricula with clinical needs (e.g., joint development of maternal care training standards).

Accreditation and audit: Include implementation fidelity metrics (e.g., simulation usage rates, supervision quality) in vocational college accreditation to ensure model adherence.

These measures can bridge the gap between training inputs and clinical outcomes, enhancing maternal care quality in underserved areas.

Limitations and Future Directions

The Study has several limitations that future research should address:

Construct Measurement

The Staff Training construct requires refinement (e.g., splitting into sub-dimensions like simulation quality and supervision intensity) to improve validity.

Outcome Measurement

Maternal complication data were self-reported; future studies should use electronic medical records (EMR) to obtain objective clinical outcomes (e.g., postpartum hemorrhage rates).

Generalizability

The single-institution sample limits external validity; multi-site randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are needed to test the model’s scalability.

Longitudinal Design

A longitudinal approach can track the long-term impact of integrated training on student competence and maternal health outcomes over time.

Addressing these limitations will strengthen the evidence base for integrated vocational education models in maternal care.

Conclusion

The Study provides valuable insights into the potential of integrated vocational education to improve maternal care in underserved China. While the model enhances patient satisfaction, its clinical impact is constrained by implementation gaps and systemic barriers. To realize its full potential, reforms must focus on standardizing training, clarifying student roles, and addressing structural healthcare deficits. Future research should build on these findings to develop more robust, context-adapted models that translate training into tangible improvements in maternal health outcomes. This commentary underscores the importance of rigorous mixed-methods research in evaluating vocational education interventions and the need for systemic collaboration between education and health sectors to advance maternal health equity.

References

1. LI Y, Zhang Y, Yuan B, Wang H (2023) Analysis and thoughts on the settings of sub-campus of public hospitals directly under the National Health Commission of China. Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration, 399-403.
2. Luo W (2025) An empirical study of integration models and mechanisms for maternity care in innovative vocational education systems.